Table 3.

Predictors for overall survival

PredictorHazard ratio (95% CI)P
Univariate
    Troponin T greater than or equal to 0.035 μg/L 4.4 (1.7-10.9) .002
    Troponin I greater than or equal to 0.1 μg/L 4.9 (1.6-15.1) .006
    NT-proBNP greater than or equal to 332 ng/L 3.8 (1.2-12) .02
    cTnT Idealized Risk Score* 2.2 (1.4-3.3) .0003
    cTnI Idealized Risk Score 2.8 (.8-9.4) .09
    cTnT/NT-proBNP stage 3.1 (1.5-6.2) .001
    cTnI/NT-proBNP stage 3.8 (1.7-8.4) .001
    β2-microglobulin greater than 2.7 U/L 3.8 (1.5-9.5) .004
    Organ systems involved, no. 3.5 (1.9-6.5) < .0001
    Serum creatinine 2.3 (1.0-5.5) .05
    Melphalan intensity, high dose 0.5 (0.2-1.1) .08
    Left ventricular EF less than or equal to 50% 1.4 (0.3-6) .7
    IVS greater than or equal to 15 mm 1.8 (0.6-5.0) .3
    Age greater than 60 y 1.0 (0.4-2.5) .99
    Female gender 1.2 (0.5-2.9) .7
    Time to transplantation 0.8 (0.8-1.0) .06
    Serum M spike 1.0 (0.5-1.9) .99
    Bone marrow plasmacytosis less than 30% 1.1 (0.1-8.4) .9
    Bone marrow plasma cell labeling index 1.9 (0.8-4.2) .1
Multivariate model 1
    cTnT/NT-proBNP stage 2.3 (1.1-4.7) .02
    β2-microglobulin, U/L 2.4 (1.5-3.8) .0005
Multivariate model 2
    cTnI/NT-proBNP stage 3.2 (1.4-7.4) .007
    β2 microglobulin, U/L 2.4 (1.4-3.9) .0006
  • EF indicates ejection fraction; IVS, interventricular septum.

  • * See “Patients and methods” for equation. If risk levels 3 through 5 are collapsed into one level: HR 3.8, 95% CI 1.5-9.6, P = .004.

  • See “Patients and methods” for equation. If levels 2 and 3 are collapsed into one level: HR 6.6, 95% CI .9-49.6, P = .07.

  • Stage I is when troponin (either cTnT or cTnI) and NT-proBNP are both below threshold. Stage II is when troponin (either cTnT or cTnI) or NT-proBNP is greater than or equal to threshold value. Stage III is when troponin (either cTnT or cTnI) and NT-proBNP are both greater than or equal to threshold value. Threshold values for cTnT, cTnI, and NT-proBNP are < 0.035 μg/L, < 0.1 μg/L, and < 332 ng/L. Suffix (-t or -i) used depending on whether the troponin measured is cTnT or cTnI.